The love affair with hybrid cars because they are so economical and use so much less gas is not a cure all for our energy problems. In fact, if we become lulled into believing that it is we could be spelling our own doom. I wrote this after the "New" General Motors announced they have broken through with an engine that will get literally hundreds of miles to a gallon of gas. Written August 2009.
General motors leaked recently that the Chevrolet Volt will spearhead their new line of cars in 2010. Rising up from the ashes like a Phoenix, the leaner, meaner General Motors has taken a cue from the Obama administration putting its hopes of success in green technology. The Chevy Volt, an experimental model for many years has been dusted off, reengineered and is now ready for mass production. Bragging that it will leave Toyota’s Prius behind and will produce an unbelievable 230 miles to a gallon of gas, it will cost around $40,000. Well, even with that price tag getting 230 miles to a gallon, the car will pay for itself in no time. This has to be good news.
Has the technology finally come to a point where we can start to wean ourselves off foreign oil? I mean after all, if Americans can actually build cars that will now give hundreds of miles to a gallon of gas our troubles are over. Happy days are here again. But, let’s look at this a little closer. What happens three, five, ten, twelve years down the road when virtually 90% or more of the cars on the road are getting at least 100 to 200 miles to a gallon of gas?
When we start to buy less crude, the oil producers will be forced to adjust. If they continue to pump at the present volume the price will fall. If they pump less volume to keep pace with the new demands their revenues will still fall. Under this new reality how will countries like Iran be able to maintain their present growth in their weapons procurement program, including nuclear? My guess is that new prices will have to be set for the volume they are pumping. The alternative is to return to second class status, one that is not threatening, cannot destroy Israel or finance terror against Americans around the world. And, it’s not just Iran. Our so called friends in the region will face the same problem. Saudi Arabia is not going to allow its country to turn back into the sand dune it was in the 1950s. The gulf states will do everything they can to retain the wealth they have accumulated during the last three or four decades.
If the world reduces its need for their oil they will adjust both volume and price to meet present geo economic conditions. In other words they are going to raise the price commensurate with cars getting 200 miles to a gallon of gas. We have a history of this strategy. Past fuel efficiency programs have not produced lower prices at the pump. The oil producers historically responded by controlling the volume and thereby raised the demand to keep the price high. We are paying more now in 2009 and using less gas than in 1970 and with this coming spike in technology it will only get worse, much worse.
Hybrid technology creates a potentially explosive problem for us and our oil consuming allies. In five to ten years time we could be looking at $500 a barrel for crude. Cars will require smaller gas tanks because we will not be able to afford to fill them up. But since they get over 200 miles to a gallon they will still be able to travel more than a thousand miles on a single tank of gas even though gas tanks will only hold four or five gallons . Hybrid technology will not solve our problem of lowering prices at the pump and using less fuel to go farther.
We need another approach. Here’s an idea. Let’s take the Kennedy inspiration about going to the moon and develop an entirely new technology not dependent on fossil fuels at all. I don’t know how long that will take, but for the sake of argument let’s say Obama really gets with the Kennedy spirit and sets the goal that by the close of the next decade, before 2020 we will have something in place that will take us off foreign crude for good. Americans have lots of ideas about alternative forms of energy, we hear about them everyday, fusion technology, liquid hydrogen, and all kinds of schemes to convert water to gasoline. All right maybe some of these are hair brain but among the American entrepreneurial spirit is a new technology waiting to supplant a crude based world. The automobile, incandescent light, radio, T.V. computers, motion pictures, penicillin, vaccines for some of our most dreadful diseases, and within 66 years of the invention of flight putting a man on the moon are all American inventions. If you had said to the average person in 1900 that within a few decades people will be flying as their most common form of traveling long distances you would have been laughed at. There is no reason why we cannot find an alternative for fossil fuels, and in a reasonable period of time.
Think of it. No more dependence on foreign oil. We won’t need their stinking oil. Without the money to finance it, Muslim terror will cease to exist. They can hate us but if they can’t reach us they can’t hurt us. Europe will no longer be looking down the barrel of ultimate destruction from a nuclear Iran. Israel will become safe for the first time in its history. Maybe without this growing emergence of Muslim power peace will be attainable between Jews and Arabs. We can stop the flow of economic power from the west going to our enemies, and potential enemies. With a cheaper, cleaner, more efficient fuel we will regain our industrial strength because it will be more economical to produce our industry here rather than China or other overseas ports. And that will mean jobs and lots of them.
We live in a dangerous time and we might not have ten or eleven years to work on a new technology to bring us out of this decline. We have enemies in the world that relish our decline and do not want to see a re emergence of American power. Therefore, we should not wait to reach our goal to end this exchange of economic power from us to the Middle East. In addition to launching the search for an alternative to a crude driven economy, I suggest we immediately reopen our oil industry here in the southwest United States as a part time measure to regain the edge we had after World War II. Rebuild those oil wells across Texas, California and Alaska and wherever else modern oil drilling technology can take us. Let the wildcatters loose on the North American continent. Pump as much oil as we possibly can. That will drive down the price and stop dead in its tracks the rising power of oil rich states. Those who remember when gasoline was .40 a gallon, it can be again through the next decade. Reopening the domestic oil industry would create jobs, real jobs that people can once again feel good about themselves. The Obama administration would all but insure itself a second four years. It’s just a win, win, win situation for everyone concerned, except our enemies.
But, that is not to be. Both Obama and General Motors are toasting each other on their somewhat instant success. The Chevrolet volt gets 230 miles to a gallon of gas and the existence of America remains uncertain for the future.
